It seems from Chovas Halvavos Shar Habitachon, Ikrim and Yalkut Shimoni 473 that Bitachon is number 1, but only if it is strong enough. The help from Hashem is actually a reward for his strengthening his bitachon (not if that is why he strengthens his bitachon). This of course is in addition to number 2 which applies to someone who hasnt reached this level of bitachon, in which case he may know that he is not neccessarily deserving of hashems help (but hashem might do so anyways). In addition, his punishment was not only a “preventative measure” but also a cleansing for his soul emenating from Hashem’s kindness so that he can reattain and attain higher spiritual heights while alive and in Gan Eden. Also punishments in this world are lighter than in Gehinnom again from Hashem’s compassion. But again notwithstanding this if he strengthens his bitachon in hashem that hashem “will” save him (and for example is completely at peace, and doesn’t worry at all) then #1 applies to him still.
